Sepsis Real-Time Risk Prediction Model for Intensive Care Unit Patients Based on Machine Learning
Li Runfa1, Yang Meicheng1, Li Jianqing1,2, Liu Chengyu1# *
1(State Key Laboratory of Digital Medical Engineering, School of Instrument Science and Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China); 2(School of Biomedical Engineering and Informatics, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China)
Abstract：Sepsis is a syndrome of organ dysfunction caused by the body's dysfunctional response to infection, with high morbidity and mortality. The traditional scoring system has low specificity. Based on the LightGBM machine learning framework, this study proposed a model for early prediction and risk assessment of sepsis to provide timely intervention for patients with potential risk of sepsis. In order to realize the model, a time series feature construction method based on LASSO feature selection and sliding window path reintegration and a time series clustering sampling method based on dynamic time regularization algorithm were proposed. We selected clinical information from 29 239 patients in the MIMIC-III dataset and 40 336 patients in the PhysioNet/CinC 2019 challenge dataset to train and validate the model. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (AUC) of the proposed model on the MIMIC-III and PhysioNet/CinC 2019 independent test sets were 0.737 7, 0.730 4, 0.814 7 and 0.802 6, 0.789 1, 0.873 0, respectively. Compared with the state-of-the-art method EASP, the improvement of AUC was 3.62% and 2.83% respectively. In conclusion, the established model could predict the risk of sepsis in real time, reveal the important factors affecting the occurrence of sepsis, and provide a basis for timely intervention of people at risk of sepsis.
作者简介: #中国生物医学工程学会高级会员(Senior member, Chinese Society of Biomedical Engineering)
引用本文:
李润发, 杨美程, 李建清, 刘澄玉. 基于机器学习的重症患者脓毒症实时风险预测模型[J]. 中国生物医学工程学报, 2024, 43(1): 1-9.
Li Runfa, Yang Meicheng, Li Jianqing, Liu Chengyu. Sepsis Real-Time Risk Prediction Model for Intensive Care Unit Patients Based on Machine Learning. Chinese Journal of Biomedical Engineering, 2024, 43(1): 1-9.
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